...and I hate them. Nevertheless, for whatever the reason, I still find myself playing in cash games knowing full well that I will inevitably make some lazy donkey move at the end of the night and hand back all my hard work. I went to the River Rock last night in the hopes that I would not make said move once again. I was wrong, of course... but I did realize the potential for earnings in the future if I can ever fill in and correct what seems to be some major leaks in my cash game strategy. Oh wait, I don't have one! I'll detail the hand that basically cleaned me out me in a minute, but first let me reflect on what events took place prior to making this decison to try my luck one more time at the $1/2 NL table at the Rock.
It started out at the golf course where I teed it up with the usual weekend crew. This time there was only three of us. Surprisingly, this was my first full round of 2007. I've been itching to play for weeks now, and since the weather was finally cooperating during the week we were finally able to get a full round in without question. I managed to shoot 75 which was 3 over par. I seemed to have this habit though of making a bogey every time I made a birdie. I did that three times, but overall I was happy with my first outting of the year... managing to avoid making a double bogey by relying on my putter to bail me out on a number of occasions. I did manage to miss, what seemed to be, a long two footer for birdie on 15. Note to self: practice short putts. I expected to be a bit rusty so in hindsight, I'm cool with it.
Man, did I ever miss golf... a lot. I'm really looking forward to this season. I'd have to say I'd much rather be golfing than grinding out any sort of card game. Don't get me wrong, I love me some gamble, but I'd rather do it on the golf course where I can control almost every single event that occurs... except, as usual, for what my opponents do on the course and the decisions they make. This sounds similar to poker, however there is one major factor in poker that doesn't apply so much to golf... and that factor is LUCK.
Sure, there are times in golf where you "get lucky" and your ball somehow banks off a tree or two and kicks out into the fairway, but that is rare. Or the time your ball was heading straight for the water and somehow hits a rock or boulder and deflects into play, however that is even MORE rare. Usually its - hit in the trees, stay in the trees. Hit it at the water, go in the water. There are also times where you can get "unlucky" in golf. Such as you hit it in the trees, so now you need to take your medicine and punch out. But wait, for some reason your ball is stuck directly behind a tree, and now you have to hit it out backwards or towards more danger... again, very rare.
Overall though, I'd say there is much less of a reliance on luck in golf than in poker. I pulled this quote from a book I just finished called "Caro's essential secrets of wining poker" which is:
I am a lucky player. A powerful winning force surronds me.
say it with me: I AM A LUCKY PLAYER. A POWERFUL WINNING FORCE SURROUNDS ME.
say it three times, and say it with afirmation.
When you're down in the dumps, say it, believe it. You'll suddenly find yourself playing better, saving money and building that bankroll that we all treasure and nuture.
Ok so we all know we need luck. If that was the only factor that hindered my ability to walk out a winner last night, then I would be fine with that. It is quite obvious though that when I think back about the events that took place last night there is one common theme that seems to support the fact that I seem to toss away my chips at nights end like clock work... and that theme is.... BEER. I was drunk. Beer and poker do not mix... for me that is. Sure some people seem to be able to pull it off, but not me. Therefore I make this promise: I will not play cash games at the casino or any other venue (including online) when I have had more than 3 beers. Simple. Safe. Sensible. I will allow for the odd time when the stakes are small and the focus is "fun."
Now here is the hand in question that I would like some input on. Please note that there are few areas that I screwed up in this hand, but its the final decision to call (never a good decision to have of course) or fold to a re-raise on the turn that has got me questioning myself:
10 players. I am in the CO+1 where there is already two limpers and I look down and see Q-10s. Until this point, I had a very tight image only showing down one hand in the first two hours and that hand was pocket aces... double up. I had almost doubled my starting buyin of $140 to around $270.
I called the $2 (mistake #1), everyone to my left folds so I now have position. The SB raises to $12, BB folds, one limper calls and I call.
The flop: 9h 7s 2d. The SB bets $15 into a pot of $40. The limper folds. My read on this guy was that he was a decent player, but he had not been sitting there for very long at all. I put him on a range of any ace, or pocket pair below 10's. I decided to raise (mistake #2). I raise it another $50, he thinks for about 15 seconds and calls. He now has $140 left in his stack and I have him covered.
The turn is Js. He checks. I now have an open ended straight draw, a gutshot (need an 8) and a flush draw. I decided to be $70 (mistake #3?) and he re-raises all in. It was another $70 for me to call. After some quick calculations in my head I determined that I was priced in to call... so I did.
He flips over pocket 9's for a set and the river is a 7 giving him the full house. I missed every. single. out. GG me.
I'm not even sure where or how to analyze where I went wrong except for the fact that I should have just stuck to my game and not made such dumb donkey moves like raising the flop or even calling the preflop raise. I'm almost certain that I had to make that call for the final $70 at the end... but at that point, it was already too late, and the poker gods did not grace me with some much needed suckout luck.
Any comments? I'd appreciate it if anyone has something constructive to say. You can even call me a dokey, cuz its true. I hate cash games, and cash games hate me... however I think that with a little more work and some clear thinking, I can at least avoid these situations in the future. Clear thinking is the key. Not dumb drunken decision making at 2am.
Have a good week everyone. Anyone have any good "April fool's" pranks stories to tell? Let me know.
2.4.07
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6 comments:
Alright, you really dont need me to tell you what to do you already now why you played the hand wrong. But since u ask here goes:
1)A couple of limpers from EP and u call 2$ is a STANDARD play especially with Q10s, I would even probably call with q10o but that is a little more risky...
2)Calling a RR to 12$ (6XBB) from the SB whom u know to be a decent player not the greatest of ideas but with another caller putting in about 3-1 for u to call 11 into a 36$ pot not terrible odds.
3) A strong tough player betting 15 into a 40 pot should send flags up. I dont really hate the raise but i would have raised 35-40 to see where he stood if I was going to raise at all. Personally here is where u should have folded.
4) When he instant calls after little hesitation and then checks to you with your open draw with a good amount of outs, I would have checked for the free card. Only because at this point I'm not sure if the J scared him or if he's got a monster up his sleave. Now this is read dependent and it looks liek you had the right read on the player just executed it improperly.
5) Too tierd to do the math but im sure calling 70 was justified...
6) If only we could get lucky every time then we'd all be winning players.... live and learn
Aggression does pay off u just got be selective with it and know when to continue and when to drop
Pretty good analysis by Raveen. For me the key point is whether that really small bet means monster (99-77) or missed flop (AK-AQ probably). So basically it's a play that depends on your read of the guy. If you think he's weak, it's a good play, but you have to be correct!
Calling those last $70 is obviously correct. You were getting 4:1 while you had 15 outs to win the pot (just over 2:1).
Well, notice that the gutshot is useless for starters. The 8 is the low end of your OESD, so the fact it also fills in a 7-J straight means nothing other than your opponent might have a T as well.
That said, 15 outs gives you solid odds with that $70 call, your final call was the right move.
As was your initial call of the $2.
It's everything in between that's suspect. Raveen's right. Especially on the flop when you had a whole pile of nothing. Even with any-ace he has you beat, and a pair less than ten gives him 3 possible sets there. If I have top set and my opponent re-raises like you did on that flop, I'm putting him on a premium pair, a set of deuces, or possibly AKs, and making him pay. Your $50 bet would also make me smile inside as I know I could get you to bet into me from there on out.
He represented a trap and you walked into it. You intially read him right (solid player, pair less than 10) and then promptly ignored your read. Texture is important here.
Thanks for all the great comments so far guys. I guess sticking with my initial read would entail me actually remembering it in the first place. I wasn't thinking clearly, everything was fuzzy. If I had taken the time to replay the events in my head before the turn, I think I could have saved myself $140 very easily. Live and learn I agree.
Under betting the flop should have sent out red flags right away... I mean doesn't everyone bet out when they hit their set? Pretty standard these days.
I count 13 outs now that I think about it a bit more, but I could be missing a couple. I don't get Astin's comment about the gutshot being useless though... anyone? I'm sure if I thought about it more I could figure it out. The more comments the merrier, thanks guys.
You trapped yourself into making a correct call. C'est la vie - live by the draw, die by the draw ...
Wednesday night for the Johnny Chan satellite?
15 outs on the turn:
OESD = 8 outs (4 eights, 4 kings)
Flush draw = 7 outs (13 spades - 4 you know of - 2 already accounted in the OESD)
8+7 = 15
The 8 completes your OESD to the Queen, you've already got the 9TJQ. So it does nothing in terms of the inside straight 7x9TJ because you already have that beat with the Q. You were aiming for a gutshot pre-flop, but it's become open-ended by the turn. It's not a gutshot anymore.
My point being that saying you also have a gutshot is redundant when you have the OESD. Unless it's just ambiguous grammar and you were pointing out that your OESD was a partially-filled gutshot.
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