1.6.07

Variance sucks.

I decided to play some 1/2 for exactly 1 hour last night before packing it in. I went with the "buyin short" method ($80) which may not have been the way to go (but has worked in the past - play tight and double)... Nothing exciting happened for the most part. I had AA, QQ and got paid a little, but never was up more than half a buyin.

That dwindled away quickly and as the hour mark approached I decided I would see the rest of the hands until the blinds came around again. There was about 1 minute left in my 1 hour limit when I pick up AA in MP. A limper in front, and I limp as well hoping that one of the two big stacks on my left was going to raise it up. Sure enough the button pops it to $11, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls and I raise it to a total of $25 (was this too thin? do I really want to take the pot down right now? $47 would have been a pot size raise). Button calls and UTG folds. 2 players, perfect, let's see a flop. The flop comes 10-Q-K with two clubs. I jam for my remaining $60 which is just under the size of the pot. The button auto calls and flips 10-10. I miss everything and shut down the computer before the chips are even shipped.

FAWK. 80.5% favorite preflop means nothing. Damn set mining bullshit. Maybe I should have just pushed and taken his $11 and called it a night. That's one mookie entry right there! I played double up and go, and it didn't work.

I knew variance would get me sooner or later.

Congrats to Waffles and Hoy for respectively finishing 3rd and 2nd in the Riverchasers last night. Waffles got donktastically sucked out on when he flopped the nut straight and jammed.

But the blogger that is ON FIRE right now is Cracknaces. Go check it out.

Have a good weekend everyone.
random thoughts by on

1 comment:

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

Variance does suck. And no, I would never recommend anyone buying in short... unless, they don't think they can beat the game. It limits the moves that you can put on someone and also, it commits you to a pot way too early. Depending on the texture, by the turn, you're already pot committed because your stack is less than what's in the pot. It just depends I think but I feel that if I have the edge in cash games, regardless of the variance (which we all have to ride through), I want to make sure that my double up opportunity is for the max cash. Now typically, I don't reload (I should but I don't and I actually can't explain why) but again, I think it's important to have enough in your stack for set mining opportunities also. Like if you bought in for $80 at 1-2NL, what would you do, if you are dealt 88 and there's a limper and a guy with 200 raises it bigger to $15? Would you still call? You're getting bad odds because even if you hit (you know the odds so I won't even go into that), AND double up, you didn't have the right odds to do it.

I just think that if you're comfortable with buying in $80, you should be hitting the $.50/$1 NL games. I am convinced that you can make as much if not more doing that and buying in at the max, rather than trying to hit the higher level with a shorter stack.

PS, no matter what you did, I doubt that dude with TT woulda gone anywhere preflop.

7:58 PM

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